SORMAC-23
Limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees, with optimal use of direct capture of CO2 in the atmosphere (DAC)
Impact on growth
In this scenario, a constraint is imposed on the rise in the average atmospheric surface temperature (AAST). A technology for the direct capture of CO2 from the atmosphere is gradually becoming available. It is used in such a way as to maximise the sum of the utilities derived from consumption in the three coalitions.
Trajectory of temperature increase
We see that the temperature increase stabilizes at 2 degrees C over a 100-year time horizon.
![image](https://www.ordecsys.com/uploads/cache/1000/builder-templates/pages/219/570890b2fad6e38695f438afeee77e4587d01d07.jpg)
OUTPUT
In order to respect this 2-degree limit on temperature increase, the OECD countries must immediately commit to a more or less constant production level; BRIC countries develop slowly. Only ROW world would experience production growth over most of the horizon.
![image](https://www.ordecsys.com/uploads/cache/1000/builder-templates/pages/218/dfad81713fa08229d05938ad16770b8a90881329.jpg)
Impact on Welfare
Per capita consumption profiles are shown below. countries and the rest of the ROW world.
![image](https://www.ordecsys.com/uploads/cache/1000/builder-templates/pages/225/869c9a42327b35f2e84eb2bfac19b51ef33686f6.jpg)
Emissions
For the sake of realism, we have assumed that GHG emissions could not fall by more than 15% per 5-year period. On the other hand, we have limited the possibility of storing captured CO2 to a quantity of 6 Gt per year.
Here, we observe a rapid decline in emissions to a level of around 12 Gt of CO2 per year in 2040, followed by a slight drop to 10 Gt per year in 2120.
Negative emissions resulting from CDR/DAC investment are shown here in red. From 2095 onwards, net emissions are around 4 Gt of CO2 per year.
The second chart shows the emissions reduction efforts of the 3 coalitions.
![image](https://www.ordecsys.com/uploads/cache/1000/builder-templates/pages/224/83365a815c3708c7c06df52a62e7cb9b0dacfee7.jpg)
![image](https://www.ordecsys.com/uploads/cache/1000/builder-templates/pages/282/f7cd8a2db7b1243adfcc86931c9bc304587b5be5.jpg)